And the Winning Numbers Are...
It’s that time of year again, when Wall Street analysts make their predictions for the stock market’s performance, how many interest rate cuts there will be, and which stock(s) are the ones to own for the next 12 months. We will not partake in this futile exercise because in the nearly 25 years we have been investing for our clients, seldom have any of these predictions been accurate. Incidentally, when it comes to investing, there is nothing magical about a year ending and another beginning. We may look at a new year as a fresh start to work toward our goals of losing weight or organizing some aspect of our lives, but the economy doesn’t hit a reset button on January 1st.
The “Magnificent 7” of which we have written about prior led the way for most of the year. Only in the fourth quarter have the less “Magnificent” had their day. The chart below (taken from FactSet) is the performance of the S&P 500 (solid green bars) a market cap weighted index, versus the Equal Weight S&P 500 (green and red bars) which equally weighs all 500 companies in the index, regardless of their market capitalization. Note how it has closed the gap recently. Will that continue into 2024? We think there is a good chance it will.
Another opportunity presented itself in the second half of 2023 - interest rates had risen to levels that we haven’t seen since the Great Recession. See chart also from Yahoo Finance on the U.S 10-year Treasury:
We do hope that 2023 has been filled with many blessings and moments that have brought you joy. It certainly has been an eventful year at Total View Advisors – Gus dropped off his daughter at college, Danny’s eldest started driving, just to name two milestones. We moved from our old office into a temporary space and will soon be in our home for the next several years. Stay tuned, more to come on that topic. We are as grateful as ever for your continued trust and confidence.
May you all enjoy the remainder of this holiday season and a very healthy and prosperous 2024!
The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Prior to making any investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary.
This article was written by Gus Vega, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, Total View Advisors and Branch Manager with RJFS and Danny Brea, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, Total View Advisors and Financia Advisor with RJFS. They can be reached at 786.264.4954, 9155 S. Dadeland Blvd. # 1404, Miami, FL 33156. Total View Advisors is not a registered broker dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA / SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.